Missile event in Ukraine on Fri 2nd August 2024

Ukraine claims it struck and sunk the Russian Russian Navy Improved Kilo class diesel-electric attack submarine Rostov-on-Don in an attack on Sevastopol “by units of the missile forces, in cooperation with units of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff claimed on Telegram.

“As a result of the impact, the boat sank on the spot,” according to the General Staff. “The destruction of ‘Rostov-on-Don‘ once again proves that there is no safe place for the Russian fleet in the Ukrainian territorial waters of the Black Sea,” the General Staff added.

Ukraine provided no visual proof of the submarine being sunk. However, satellite imagery obtained by The War Zone shows that a peculiar floating installation at Sevastopol’s port, one that only came into being in the last few months, was clearly damaged within the last 48 hours. The facility is nestled deep in one of the bay’s fingers and was constructed using two barges with a roof-like covering strung between them. This is where some claim the submarine was being worked on at the time of the strike, although we cannot confirm that.

This would mark the second time the Rostov-on-Don was struck by Ukraine.

In September, the boat was considered damaged beyond repair in an attack reported to be carried out by air-launched Storm Shadow and/or SCALP-EG standoff missiles that can be launched by Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 Fencer strike/reconnaissance aircraft. The Ropucha class landing ship Minsk was also damaged in that attack.

However, the Ukrainian General Staff on Saturday said the submarine, which cost “$300 million,” had been “repaired and tested in the water area of the Sevastopol harbor. A retired Russian Navy officer who runs the Capt_Navy Twitter handle – and frequently posts comments about Crimea – told us on Saturday that he concurred with the Ukrainian assessment that the submarine had been repaired after the first attack.

You can see images of the vessel after that attack below. Just how likely it is that the submarine as anywhere near an operational state just ten months after being torn into by cruise missiles is questionable, but clearly Ukraine thought it was still a worthy target. Still, it’s very possible the odd floating installation that Russia cobbled together last April was put in place to revive the submarine, especially out of view of satellites overhead.

Overnight, video of the attack emerged on social media purporting to be the attack.

The Rostov-on-Don had been capable of launching Kalibr land attack cruise missiles, of the type widely used against targets in Ukraine. It entered service in 2014 and is one of four of its type with the Black Sea Fleet.

As of noon Eastern time, neither the Russian Defense Ministry nor local government officials in occupied commented about the claim. However, Sevastopol’s occupation governor Mikhail Razvovzhayev did say a building in his city was struck by a U.S.-provided Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) that had been downed by air defenses. More on that later.

In addition to hitting the submarine, the Ukrainian General staff said the attack also damaged an S-400 “Triumph” air defense system.

“…according to information confirmed yesterday…4 launchers of the ‘Triumph’ air defense system were significantly damaged,” it said on Telegram.

The Ukrainian General Staff offered no visual proof.

The loss of another S-400 system would further damage Russian air defenses on the occupied peninsula. That creates a cascade of difficulties. Fewer systems mean more vulnerabilities to the overall air defense overlay there. Beyond that, each loss is one less system Russia can use in protecting its forward-deployed troops as well as its homeland.

Ukraine’s spy chief told us those were Ukraine’s objectives in the ongoing attacks against Russian air defenses.

“So first of all, the fact itself is that we’re engaging the military infrastructure and military targets in occupied Crimea and the occupier’s infrastructure,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone last September in an exclusive interview. “If we’re going deeper into strikes against the air defense system, it’s more complicated here. First of all, the air defense systems themselves are very costly equipment and it takes a lot of time to produce those and Russian flags those systems because all this inventory is currently engaged in fighting against Ukraine and also in protection of Moscow. They’ve taken away air defenses from everywhere else.”

“That is why, naturally, when we engage in another and another air defense battalion of the Russian military, they need to think about where they can pull those systems from and where are they able to tolerate less defenses in other places,” he added.

The attack also further destabilizes like in the city and the peninsula writ large.

Officials in Sevastopol had to evacuate residents from a nine-story building after they say remnants of an ATACMS cluster-munitions variant struck its roof at around the same time the Rostov-on-Don was said to be hit.

Russian officials claim it was downed by air defenses in Sevastopol, the frequently attacked home of the Black Sea Fleet.

Between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m. local time, “employees of the Sevastopol department of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations at the training ground in the Kara-Koba area will carry out the planned destruction of the high-explosive part of the ATACMS missile discovered on the roof of a house on the North Side after a night attack,” Razvozhayev said on Telegram Friday.

Razvovzhayev issued a warning to children to avoid picking up the explosive clusters.

“Let me remind you that the M74 submunition is a steel shell filled with explosives,” he stated. “When impacted and detonated, each submunition produces a large amount of steel fragments.” 

Given the number of attacks on the city, Razvozhayev said Sevastopol is building 600 concrete shelters to protect citizens.

“They will be located on official beaches, in parks, squares, as well as at public transport stops, near which there are no permanent structures for shelter,” he explained. “When manufacturing reinforced concrete structures, you need to follow a technological process that requires a certain amount of time. We expect that from Monday the shipments will increase – we will deliver and install at least 30 pieces in the city every week.”

In addition, Sevastopol “also started covering the windows of kindergartens and schools with protective film. Today, glass panels have already been pasted over in institutions located in Kach, in Cossack Bay and at other addresses. Work continues.”

While Ukraine is largely on the defensive across the battlefield, it has been able to readily strike targets deep in Crimea, something officials say will continue.

The final sinking of a quarter of its Kalibr-capable submarines, and a boat that has already sucked up a lot of resources bringing back to life, would be another blow to the Black Sea Fleet. The Russian Navy has already been forced to withdraw many of its major warships from ports in Crimea, with assets being relocated across the Black Sea to the east, in Novorossiysk located in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Meanwhile, the commander of the Russian Navy was removed from his post in March, in a move widely seen as a response to Black Sea Fleet losses.

This latest attack is another sign that Ukraine’s standoff strikes on Crimea have no sign of abating.